Six Senators to Negroponte: Produce a National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq Now

Last Friday, I reported that no National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) has been produced on Iraq for nearly two years—despite the fact that that situation in the country has dramatically worsened in that time. I was told that John Negroponte, the administration's Director of National Intelligence, has been blocking a new NIE for fear that an honest assessment would be overwhelmingly negative and potentially embarrassing to the Bush Administration.

Today, six Democratic senators—Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, along with Senators Edward Kennedy, Joseph Biden, John D. Rockefeller, Carl Levin, and Jack Reed—wrote to Negroponte to ask that a new NIE be produced, saying it is “essential that we have an updated assessment from the intelligence community on critical political, economic and security trends.” Here is a link to the the letter and a press release. The letter from the Senators also appears below.

July 25, 2006

Ambassador John D. Negroponte

Director of National Intelligence

Office of the Director of National Intelligence

Washington, DC 20511

Dear Director Negroponte,

We are writing to ask that you prepare an updated National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq.

We understand that the last NIE was prepared in the summer of 2004, two years ago. It is essential that we have an updated assessment from the intelligence community on critical political, economic and security trends. Consistent with the protection of sources and methods, we would request that an unclassified summary of the key judgments be made available to inform the Congressional and public debate, in addition to the usual classified assessment.

Reports from the Departments of Defense and State and statements from Administration officials on security and stability in Iraq have been troublingly inadequate in assisting Congress with measuring the success of our efforts in Iraq and the safety of our troops, and it is essential to have an objective assessment of data on Iraq from the intelligence community. Among other key questions, we would appreciate the intelligence community's assessment of the following issues:

— Sectarianism: Is Iraq in or descending into a civil war? What factors will prevent or reverse deterioration of the sectarian situation?

— Security: Is Iraq succeeding in standing up effective security forces? What factors will increase the chances of that occurring? To what extent are militias providing security in Iraq? To what extent has the Government of Iraq developed and implemented a credible plan to disarm and demobilize and reintegrate militias into government security forces? To what extent is the Government of Iraq working to obtain a political commitment from political parties to ban militias?

— Terrorism: What is the threat from violent extremist-related terrorism, including Al Qaeda, in and from Iraq? What factors will address the terrorist threat?

— Political Development: Is Iraq succeeding in creating a stable and effective unity government? What is the likelihood that changes to the constitution will be made to address concerns of the Sunni community? What factors will increase the chances of that occurring?

— Economic Reconstruction: Is Iraq succeeding in rebuilding its economy and creating economic prosperity for Iraqis? What factors will increase the chances of that occurring?

— Iraq's Future: According to press accounts, the 2004 NIE contained analysis on three possible scenarios for Iraq's stability through the end of 2005. What are the scenarios through 2007?

— US Force Posture: In what ways is the large-scale presence of multi-national forces helping or hindering Iraqis' chances of success?

The stakes are enormously high in Iraq, and we appreciate, in advance, the work of the intelligence community on this updated NIE.

Sincerely,

Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid

Senator Edward Kennedy

Senator Joseph Biden

Senator John D. Rockefeller

Senator Carl Levin

Senator Jack Reed

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