A Hostage Swap?

By Scott Horton

Yesterday I spoke with a British diplomat who has some peripheral involvement in the current Persian Gulf crisis and asked a fairly obvious question: What were the prospects for a resolution of the current dilemma through a prisoner exchange—namely the 15 British sailors and marines seized by Tehran for the six Iranians held by U.S. forces in Iraq? The question drew a broad smile and this comment: “If everything develops as I hope it will, then about a week from today people may very well be speculating that this is what has happened. They might very well think that. Of course, government representatives would be at pains to convince them that there is no relationship between the releases, because it is the position of each of the governments involved that there can be no quid pro quo when it comes to hostages.” That's about as close as a wily diplomat would come to saying “yes.” Shortly after that discussion, I noticed that one of the captured Iranians was released in Baghdad, and the AP reported that an Iranian diplomat was permitted to see the five Iranians held in Arbil. Both sides were careful to say that none of this had anything whatsoever to do with the case of the detained British service personnel.

This morning President Ahmadinejad has announced the release of the 15 British sailors and marines. “I announce their freedom and their return to their people,” he said. “They will be free after our meeting. They will go to the airport and will join their families,” Ahmadinejad stated. He went out of his way to say this was not a part of a swap for Iranians held in Iraq.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the five Iranians still held by U.S. forces in Iraq are going to be released in short order. Of course, this will have nothing whatsoever to do with the release by the Iranians. Why? As Ahmadinejad, Bush and Blair have each stated, “there should be no quid pro quos when it comes to the hostages.” Ours or theirs.