A Nuclear Threat in the Persian Gulf

By Scott Horton

The most recent developments in the Persian Gulf almost certainly constitute a victory for Iranian president Ahmadinejad on the home front. He has been quick to trumpet them in this way, and to draw attention to his acceleration of the Natanz nuclear project. The New York Times reports:

“With great pride, I announce as of today our dear country is among the countries of the world that produces nuclear fuel on an industrial scale,” Mr. Ahmadinejad told government officials, diplomats, and foreign and local journalists at the Natanz site. “This nuclear fuel is definitely for the development of Iran and expansion of peace in the world.”

Ahmadinejad is prone to boastful overstatements, and this may well be one. Nevertheless, the growing consensus among those who closely monitor Iranian nuclear preparations is that the pace of Iran's nuclear ramp-up has quickened. I understand from sources within IAEA that the Iranians are now up to 1,200 centrifuges in underground facilities at Natanz. Let’s assume that they continue to accelerate this process: it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see them hit 2,500 by next month, possibly 3,000–about one cascade per week.

A year ago, the consensus view among Western intelligence agencies and the IAEA experts was that the Iranians still needed five years, and perhaps a decade, before they would reach the level needed for the production of nuclear weapons. However, the increased pace at Natanz is causing some to rethink that estimate, and there are now experts saying that Iran will pull up to the doorstep of the nuclear club before 2009 is out.

It is important to rethink the events of the last week in the context of the Iranian nuclear project. Analysts with whom I conferred yesterday were expressing the view that the Iranians scored points towards their primary objective with this escapade. Was that to win the release of a diplomat seized in Baghdad, I asked? No. Their primary objective has been to drive a wedge between the United States and its traditional allies—both the United Kingdom and the major players on the continent. Distrust over American motivation is already high in Europe, and the events of the last two weeks have not helped. The speed of the Iranian nuclear program is of course affected by the sanctions in place and the rigor with which they are enforced. Undermining the resolve of the international community on this point is therefore at the top of the agenda. On all these points, the antics of the Neocon war party play directly into the hands of the Iranians, and undermine the prospects for American leadership and effective action to counter the proliferation threat.