The Gore Question

By Ken Silverstein

One of the key, unanswered questions about the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is whether Al Gore will ultimately throw his hat in the ring. There's a fear among Democrats that their frontrunners–Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards—all have serious and obvious vulnerabilities against a decent GOP candidate.

Clinton, of course, is disliked by many Democrats—and worse for her, by many types of Democrats. Beyond that, the idea of a 1988 to 2012 (or 2016) presidential run of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton just doesn't sit well with many people. Edwards has a strong campaign team, but his Man of the People persona is taking a beating with reports of his $6 million mansion and $400 haircuts. And despite Obama's ability to raise so much money, no one really has any idea of how his campaign will play out. “Obama is like the latest and greatest new toy at the auto show,” one GOP political consultant told me. “You're dying to have a look but you're not going to buy it.”

I asked that person and two other political consultants for their nutshell take on whether Gore was likely to run and, if he did, how hard it would be to ramp up a serious campaign. Because they all have campaign commitments, the consultants (the other two are Democrats) would only speak off the record. The consensus among them was that no one, including Gore, knows at this point whether he'll run or not. “I know a lot of people close to him and none of them have any idea what his plans are,” one of the Democrats said.

However, the Republican consultant thinks that in the end Gore probably won't run. “He's got a big ego, especially now that he's a Hollywood star, but he'll lose some of that appeal as a candidate. Also, he'd face serious obstacles at this stage. He could raise money and he has a lot going for him, but it's already late. You need to be organized across the country. Some of the campaigns already have at least a dozen or more people in every state. He'd also need talent that could put together a nationwide organization and most of the top talent is already tied up.”

But the Democratic consultant cited above said Gore still had plenty of time to decide, certainly until the fall. “It wouldn't be simple for him to jump in that late, but no one can bring to the campaign anything like his assets. He's got 100 percent name recognition, could raise $50 million in 60 days, and he's been way out front on the two big issues that are driving opinion, Iraq and global warming. His 2003 speech in San Francisco foresaw what was going to happen in Iraq and 25 million people have seen his movie on global warming. The only obstacle he faces is getting on the ballot, and that's not an overwhelmingly difficult task. He'll make a calculation but it's not going to be based on the mechanics of organizing a campaign, which he's very familiar with, but on the state of the race.”

The third consultant I spoke with, another Democrat, believes Gore is likely to enter the race. “Someone like Bill Richardson had to get in the race now, but Gore can wait to decide until the end of the year. He's got resources, connections, face and name recognition, and he knows the right people in the primary states. Obama or Edwards could end up winning the nomination but Hillary is still the favorite, and as time goes on the desire for an alternative to her is going to grow—especially because the left of the party is so unhappy with her over Iraq. The real question is whether Gore decides that he wishes to reenter the political fray. A lot of people are asking him to do that, publicly and privately, because he's the Democrat with the best chance to win in the general election. If he does decide to run, Obama immediately becomes a vice presidential candidate and Edwards is out because Gore will win over his southern, populist base. So it becomes a Gore vs. Hillary race.”