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This month Harper’s takes a very serious look at Rudy Giuliani, who could very possibly become the next President of the United States. One of the things that has always distinguished Giuliani was his tough stance on crime—he may have been a dictatorial mayor, but rape, homicide, burglary and automobile theft all fell between 50 and 80 percent in the 1990s.
Under his leadership from 1994-2001, as the former mayor has noted, New York was the only major U.S. city where crime declined “every single year.” To underscore that point, Giuliani is running radio ads praising himself for this very accomplishment. And a number of commentators are with the mayor—for example, William Tucker, writing in the March American Spectator, recounted a conversation he had defending the former mayor an Upper West side restaurant: “Didn’t [Giuliani] stop crime? Wouldn’t [this] group be worried about walking home tonight if it hadn’t been for Giuliani?”
Except it turns out that Giuliani’s claims to be the savior of New York might be overstated. “When you’re passing around the credit,” noted criminologist Franklin Zimring told me, “there’s an awful lot of deserving candidates.” Zimring, the author of _ The Great American Crime Decline_, has spent a great deal of time studying how crime rates fell in the 1990s and finds Giuliani’s claims to be self-serving. First, he said, during Giuliani’s time as mayor criminal activity was declining nationwide. Homicide, rape, burglary and automobile theft all dropped between 37 and 41 percent in the 1990s, according to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports—all the result of social and policy changes that were taking place in New York and in the nation at large. Thus, according to Zimring, at least half—and as much as three-quarters—of that drop in New York crime “would have happened if Rudy Giuliani had never been born.”
Whatever portion is due to Rudy, he obviously intended to take credit for the whole shebang. As Zimring pointed out, New York Police Commissioner William Bratton and his deputy for crime control strategies, Jack Maple, instituted the use of COMPSTAT–an approach that maps criminal activity and targets problem areas—in 1994. By many accounts, COMPSTAT was a resounding success. So why, two years later, would Giuliani allegedly force Bratton out of office? Perhaps because Bratton made the cover of Time, taking the spotlight away from the mayor. (It took the two ten years to bury the hatchet.).
Giuliani also takes credit for the “aggressive street policing” policy he and Bratton implemented at the beginning of his tenure that allowed for more aggressive policing by New York’s officers, with crackdowns on offenses like subway-turnstile jumping. But the 35 percent increase in police staffing that added 13,000 new employees to the NYPD, which Zimring considers another driving force in the crime decline, began under Giuliani’s predecessor, David Dinkins, and then was continued by Giuliani. Crime declined each month during the last three years of the Dinkins’ administration, too.
Zimring says Giuliani is “what Hollywood calls a supporting player” in the New York crime decline, but doubts that Giuliani will portray himself as such in his next campaign ad. “That,” he said, “doesn’t fit into a sound bite.”
Bernie Becker is editorial assistant to Ken Silverstein.
More from Bernie Becker:
Flor Arely Sánchez had been in bed with a fever and pains throughout her body for three days when a July thunderstorm broke over the mountainside. She got nervous when bolts of light flashed in the sky. Lightning strikes the San Julián region of western El Salvador several times a year, and her neighbors fear storms more than they fear the march of diseases — first dengue, then chikungunya, now Zika. Flor worried about a lot of things, since she was pregnant.
Late in the afternoon, when the pains had somewhat eased, Flor thought she might go to a dammed-up bit of the river near her house to bathe. She is thirty-five and has lived in the same place all her life, where wrinkled hills are planted with corn, beans, and fruit trees. She took a towel and soap and walked out into the rain. Halfway to the river, the pains returned and overcame her. The next thing Flor remembers, she was in a room she didn’t recognize, unable to move. As she soon discovered, she was in a hospital, her ankle cuffed to the bed, and she was being investigated for abortion.
Average duration of a Japanese prime minister’s tenure since August 1993, in months:
Brain shrinkage has no effect on cognition.
An Indianapolis fertility doctor was accused of using his own sperm to artificially inseminate patients, and a Delaware man pleaded guilty to fatally stabbing his former psychiatrist.
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“Matt was happy enough to sustain himself on the detritus of a world he saw as careening toward self-destruction, and equally happy to scam a government he despised. 'I’m glad everyone’s so wasteful,' he told me. 'It supports my lifestyle.'”