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Plus: Hillary Loses Key Endorsement
If the campaign polls are to be trusted, and they seem to be uniformly in agreement, Barack Obama will beat Hillary Clinton by a comfortable margin in New Hampshire and may well be on his way towards securing the Democratic nomination. If that happens, a few hundred thousand voters in Iowa, an atypical state bordering Illinois, will have effectively destroyed Hillary Clinton’s presidential aspirations. If fate and the two major parties had decreed that New York and Florida voted first and second, Obama might well be the one currently on the ropes. (And who knows, if Alaska had been up first we might be now discussing the inevitable triumph of Mike Gravel.)
Obama’s success so far isn’t entirely a result of the quirks of political geography. He’s a terrific campaigner, remarkable fundraiser, hugely charismatic and hard to run against. On the other side, there’s Hillary Clinton’s less than winning personality, her vote on the Iraq War, poll-driven campaign and Bush-Clinton dynasty fatigue.
Another factor in Obama’s favor is (just as the Clinton campaign claims) that the media seems to be strongly in his corner. McCain gets great press too, far better than any of the other Republican contenders. In some accounts, his fourth place tie in Iowa was deemed to be as impressive as Mike Huckabee’s triumph. “Tonight is a fantastic night for John McCain,” the Politico’s Mike Allen told Fox News. “Except for Barack Obama, there’s almost no one you’d rather be tonight than John McCain.”
Painful as it is for me to cite Howard Kurtz, he wrote a good piece about the respective coverage last month, noting, “Journalists repeatedly described Obama as a ‘rock star’ when he jumped into the race in January. His missteps — such as when his staff mocked Clinton’s position on the outsourcing of jobs overseas by referring to the Democrat not as representing a state but as ‘D-Punjab’ — generated modest coverage, but rarely at the level surrounding Clinton’s mistakes.”
Remember that big story about how “an Obama volunteer wearing a press pass asked the candidate a friendly question about tax policy at an Iowa event”? Neither do I. As Kurtz noted, citing an online posting by ABC, “[S]everal of the assembled reporters huddled and concluded that it was not a story, one of them said. Clinton faced a storm of media criticism over a similar planted question.”
You may have also missed this good piece from last July by Justin Rood of ABC, “Despite Rhetoric, Obama Pushed Lobbyists’ Interests,” which got little pick up. I suspect it would have been far more widely circulated if the name “Clinton” appeared in the headline.)
“Let’s face it. In the grand scheme of things, Clinton is The Get,” said a story in late-December in the Huffington Post. “She’s the number-one seed. The road to the White House goes through her.” The piece also criticized the media’s “hopelessly inane discussion of Clinton’s use of ‘the gender card’…If there’s advantage to be had there, why is it unfair for her to claim it?”
I’ve had conversations with political reporters whose sympathies for Obama and McCain were pretty clear. Meanwhile, reporters are far less enamored of Clinton or, to take the most obvious example on the GOP side, Mitt Romney. Of course, the Clinton campaign is partly to blame. It’s been heavy-handed and contemptuous towards the press from the get-go, and, predictably, has made enemies. And everyone seems to dislike Romney, including his Republican opponents.
How can personal opinions not impact the collective campaign coverage? (Just as my own skepticism about Obama’s commitment to “change” led me to underestimate his personal appeal). In reading election night reports from Iowa and over the past few days, the rooting for Obama and McCain sometimes seems almost palpable.
There’s no way to quantify the impact of press favoritism, or even to prove it for that matter. But I’d argue it’s a factor every bit as significant as fundraising, organization, and staff (all of which are as important as ideas and policies, as the collective media hysteria known as the Howard Dean “Scream” of 2004 proved). In this year’s race, that’s to the very good fortune of Obama and McCain.
Note: I reported two days ago that the best reason I could find to support Hillary Clinton was that I have a 13-year-old daughter who backs her. My daughter now tells me I have mischaracterized her position. She says it would be great to have the first woman president but it would also be “phenomenal” to have the first African-American president. Hence, she is neutral and will not be making an official endorsement.
More from Ken Silverstein:
Perspective — October 23, 2013, 8:00 am
How pro-oil Louisiana politicians have shaped American environmental policy
Postcard — October 16, 2013, 8:00 am
A trip to one of the properties at issue in Louisiana’s oil-pollution lawsuits
Fleming awoke in the dark and his room felt loose, sloshing so badly he gripped the bed. From his window there was nothing but a hallway, and if he craned his neck, a blown lightbulb swung into view. The room pitched up and down and for a moment he thought he might be sick. The word “hallway” must have a nautical name. Why didn’t they supply a glossary for this cruise? Probably they had, in the welcome packet he’d failed to read. A glossary. A history of the boat, which would be referred to as a ship. Sunny biographies of the captain and crew, who had always dreamed of this life. Lobotomized histories of the islands they’d visit. Who else had sailed this way. Famous suckwads from the past, slicing through this very water on wooden longships.
A welcome packet, the literary genre most likely to succeed in the new millennium. Why not read about a community you don’t belong to, that doesn’t actually exist, a captain and crew who are, in reality, if that isn’t too much of a downer on your vacation, as indifferent to one another as any set of co-employees at an office or bank? Read doctored personal statements from underpaid crew members — because ocean life pays better than money! — who hate their lives but have been forced to buy into the mythology of working on a boat, separated now from loved ones and friends, growing lonelier by the second, even while they wait on you and follow your every order.
Average portion of its yearly household expenditures that a South African family will spend on a funeral:
Neuroscientists were hoping to use rat brain waves to find people buried by earthquakes.
Four people were arrested for using a remote-controlled hexacopter to fly two pounds of tobacco to prisoners inside the yard at Calhoun State Prison in Georgia.
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Our congratulations to Alice Munro, winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize for Literature