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A letter in response to yesterday’s post, which cited GOP consultant Tom Edmonds arguing that youth turnout for the presidential election would be smaller than expected.
Your 10/20 post entitled “Is it Over?,” mentioned that Edmonds thinks
the youth won’t show up. In your article Edmonds says, “The largest
youth turnout in the primaries was in Utah, where 16 percent of
eligible young voters turned out—and they weren’t voting for Obama,
they were voting for Mitt Romney.” The consultant appears to be
conflating youth turnout with share. See Table 1 of this fact sheet
for a state-by-state list of youth turnout and share.
In fact, Ohio and Wisconsin, not Utah, tied for the highest youth
turnout (under 30s) in the primary/caucus season–25 percent. The
share of young voters in Utah’s primary was 16 percent, but share and
turnout are very different types of statistics. The denominator is
important here. To calculate the share of a demographic, the
denominator is the total number of votes cast, while the eligible
population is the denominator used to calculate turnout. Thus, the
share is affected by how other demographics vote, while the turnout is
specific to the demographic in question.
Also, over 5 million young people voted in the Democratic primaries
compared to only 1.7 million in Republican primaries. Obama won 60
percent of youth votes in the Democratic primary. McCain won only 34
percent of the youth vote in Republican primaries, and he was on the
ballot in every single race.
Whether or not the youth vote will show up is unpredictable, but high
registration numbers and websites that make the electoral process
easier (i.e. govoteabsentee.org) are some promising signs.
Research Associate, CIRCLE
More from Ken Silverstein:
Perspective — October 23, 2013, 8:00 am
How pro-oil Louisiana politicians have shaped American environmental policy
Postcard — October 16, 2013, 8:00 am
A trip to one of the properties at issue in Louisiana’s oil-pollution lawsuits
For the past three years my dosimeter had sat silently on a narrow shelf just inside the door of a house in Tokyo, upticking its final digit every twenty-four hours by one or two, the increase never failing — for radiation is the ruthless companion of time. Wherever we are, radiation finds and damages us, at best imperceptibly. During those three years, my American neighbors had lost sight of the accident at Fukushima. In March 2011, a tsunami had killed hundreds, or thousands; yes, they remembered that. Several also recollected the earthquake that caused it, but as for the hydrogen explosion and containment breach at Nuclear Plant No. 1, that must have been fixed by now — for its effluents no longer shone forth from our national news. Meanwhile, my dosimeter increased its figure, one or two digits per day, more or less as it would have in San Francisco — well, a trifle more, actually. And in Tokyo, as in San Francisco, people went about their business, except on Friday nights, when the stretch between the Kasumigaseki and Kokkai-Gijido-mae subway stations — half a dozen blocks of sidewalk, which commenced at an antinuclear tent that had already been on this spot for more than 900 days and ended at the prime minister’s lair — became a dim and feeble carnival of pamphleteers and Fukushima refugees peddling handicrafts.
One Friday evening, the refugees’ half of the sidewalk was demarcated by police barriers, and a line of officers slouched at ease in the street, some with yellow bullhorns hanging from their necks. At the very end of the street, where the National Diet glowed white and strange behind other buildings, a policeman set up a microphone, then deployed a small video camera in the direction of the muscular young people in drums against fascists jackets who now, at six-thirty sharp, began chanting: “We don’t need nuclear energy! Stop nuclear power plants! Stop them, stop them, stop them! No restart! No restart!” The police assumed a stiffer stance; the drumming and chanting were almost uncomfortably loud. Commuters hurried past along the open space between the police and the protesters, staring straight ahead, covering their ears. Finally, a fellow in a shabby sweater appeared, and murmured along with the chants as he rounded the corner. He was the only one who seemed to sympathize; few others reacted at all.
Number of U.S. congressional districts in which trade with China has produced more jobs than it has cost:
Young bilingual children who learned one language first are likelier than monolingual children and bilingual children who learned languages simultaneously to say that a dog adopted by owls will hoot.
An Oklahoma legislative committee voted to defund Advanced Placement U.S. History courses, accusing the curriculum of portraying the United States as “a nation of oppressors and exploiters.”
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“He could be one of a million beach-bound, black-socked Florida retirees, not the man who, by some odd happenstance of life, possesses the brain of Albert Einstein — literally cut it out of the dead scientist's head.”