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Barring a complete failure of polling and political punditry (not an impossibility, of course), the outcome seems clear: Barack Obama is going to win the election. Over at FiveThirtyEight.com, John McCain’s chances of winning are rated at about three percent. “By every metric, Barack Obama’s presidential campaign appears headed for the upper deck. Polls (both national and state-by-state), organization, money, and momentum are all running strongly in Obama’s favor,” Charlie Cook wrote over the weekend. “Certainly, the 2008 presidential contest could reverse direction and result in victory for John McCain. But at this point, he would have to be the beneficiary of something quite dramatic for that to happen.”
Which leads, of course, to speculation on the legendary “October surprise.” Is one coming? Not likely. But rather than checking and rechecking the polls in battleground states, let’s take a few moments and take a look at the October surprise phenomenon.
The term “October surprise” dates to 1972, when then-National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger announced 12 days before the election that “peace is at hand” in Vietnam. Given that Nixon beat George McGovern by 23 percentage points and 503 electoral votes, though, it’s hard to say that Kissinger’s announcement mattered very much. Regardless, rumors of an October surprise have surfaced every four years since; and just like in 1972, it’s hard to identify a case where one truly played a decisive role.
The Wikipedia page on the topic, for example, cites two examples from the 2004 campaigns: “On October 27, the New York Times reported the disappearance of huge cache of explosives from a warehouse in Iraq,” which the Kerry campaign said was the result of mismanagement by the Bush Administration. Two days later, Al Jazeera aired a video of Osama bin Laden, which some analysts say helped George W. Bush “as it thrust the War on Terrorism back into the public eye.” Okay–but both of those stories lacked one key ingredient of a true October surprise: conspiracy. Unless you believe that the Times worked on its piece in conjunction with the Kerry campaign, or that Al Qaeda worked out its video release date with Karl Rove, neither one really holds up.
What about this year? Here are some of the last-gasp October Surprise hopes that McCain supporters cling to (and Obama’s supporters fear). Time is running out, but it’s never too late.
Where is it? The “whitey” rumor surfaced back in the late-Spring, when Hillary Clinton was still clinging to the faintest of hopes of winning the nomination. The story of a racist diatribe by Michelle Obama captured on videotape was spread by Larry Johnson, a former intelligence official and Clinton supporter. “Republicans who have seen the tape of Michelle Obama ranting about ‘whitey’ describe it as ‘STUNNING,’” wrote Johnson.
The story spread like wildfire across the blogosphere, even though there was never a shred of evidence that it was true, and despite the fact that the story was preposterous on its face. But there’s still hope. “If Republican poohbahs have their way the tape will remain on ice until October,” Johnson wrote at the time. “But when it comes out, Barack will be permanently branded with the Nation of Islam.”
This one has been floated for years. “It should come as no surprise if the Bush Administration undertakes a preemptive war against Iran sometime before the November election,” former Senator Gary Hart wrote back in 2006. “Were these more normal times, this would be a stunning possibility, quickly dismissed by thoughtful people as dangerous, unprovoked, and out of keeping with our national character. But we do not live in normal times.”
Certainly the possibility of war with Iran was real, but fears appear to have been overblown. With no American war flotilla spotted heading towards Tehran at this time, you can ignore this one as well.
This was also suggested back in 2004–the idea being that the White House knows exactly where bin Laden is and can take him out whenever it wants. The bin Laden angle gained traction again last month, when Bob Woodward told Larry King, “[T]he White House released a statement last week saying there are newly developed techniques and operations. So we’ll see. Maybe they can use it on bin Laden and, all of a sudden, the September or the October surprise is going to be the apprehension or the death of bin Laden.” I only wish the Bush Administration was this efficient and capable.
This also has been floated for some time, and now it seems to be picking up steam as a result of several lawsuits filed by Obama’s opponent. Among them is a case (recently dismissed in Pennsylvania) brought by attorney Phillip Berg who alleges that Obama was born in Kenya and thus ineligible for the presidency.
The ever-reliable WorldNetDaily is on the case:
In Kenya, WND was told by government authorities that all documents concerning Obama were under seal until after the U.S. presidential election on November 4.
The Obama campaign website entitled “Fight the Smears” posts a state of Hawaii “Certificate of Live Birth” which is obviously not the original birth certificate generated by the hospital where Obama reportedly was born.
The beauty of this rumor is that it will survive the election and continue to offer hope to diehards in the event of an Obama victory–perhaps we’ll see an “Impeach Obama” movement start on November 5.
But all of that aside–if you’re worried about an October surprise, don’t be. They never mattered, and they won’t matter now. Which is good; the last thing we need after the past eight years are any more surprises.
More from Ken Silverstein:
Perspective — October 23, 2013, 8:00 am
How pro-oil Louisiana politicians have shaped American environmental policy
Postcard — October 16, 2013, 8:00 am
A trip to one of the properties at issue in Louisiana’s oil-pollution lawsuits
For the past three years my dosimeter had sat silently on a narrow shelf just inside the door of a house in Tokyo, upticking its final digit every twenty-four hours by one or two, the increase never failing — for radiation is the ruthless companion of time. Wherever we are, radiation finds and damages us, at best imperceptibly. During those three years, my American neighbors had lost sight of the accident at Fukushima. In March 2011, a tsunami had killed hundreds, or thousands; yes, they remembered that. Several also recollected the earthquake that caused it, but as for the hydrogen explosion and containment breach at Nuclear Plant No. 1, that must have been fixed by now — for its effluents no longer shone forth from our national news. Meanwhile, my dosimeter increased its figure, one or two digits per day, more or less as it would have in San Francisco — well, a trifle more, actually. And in Tokyo, as in San Francisco, people went about their business, except on Friday nights, when the stretch between the Kasumigaseki and Kokkai-Gijido-mae subway stations — half a dozen blocks of sidewalk, which commenced at an antinuclear tent that had already been on this spot for more than 900 days and ended at the prime minister’s lair — became a dim and feeble carnival of pamphleteers and Fukushima refugees peddling handicrafts.
One Friday evening, the refugees’ half of the sidewalk was demarcated by police barriers, and a line of officers slouched at ease in the street, some with yellow bullhorns hanging from their necks. At the very end of the street, where the National Diet glowed white and strange behind other buildings, a policeman set up a microphone, then deployed a small video camera in the direction of the muscular young people in drums against fascists jackets who now, at six-thirty sharp, began chanting: “We don’t need nuclear energy! Stop nuclear power plants! Stop them, stop them, stop them! No restart! No restart!” The police assumed a stiffer stance; the drumming and chanting were almost uncomfortably loud. Commuters hurried past along the open space between the police and the protesters, staring straight ahead, covering their ears. Finally, a fellow in a shabby sweater appeared, and murmured along with the chants as he rounded the corner. He was the only one who seemed to sympathize; few others reacted at all.
Number of U.S. congressional districts in which trade with China has produced more jobs than it has cost:
Young bilingual children who learned one language first are likelier than monolingual children and bilingual children who learned languages simultaneously to say that a dog adopted by owls will hoot.
An Oklahoma legislative committee voted to defund Advanced Placement U.S. History courses, accusing the curriculum of portraying the United States as “a nation of oppressors and exploiters.”
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