No Comment — February 29, 2012, 9:27 am

The Afghanistan Dilemma

Violence broke out across Afghanistan last week when news emerged that American forces had burned copies of the Koran. American military officials explained that the books had been taken from prisoners held at the Bagram detention facility and were being destroyed together with other collected materials. It was a completely avoidable mistake, and one with serious consequences. In the demonstrations and attacks that have followed, at least thirty people have been killed, including two American soldiers who were shot in the back of the head while they were inside Afghanistan’s Interior Ministry.

These sad developments come at a time when, notwithstanding an official façade of commitment to present operations, senior figures in the nation’s security establishment and the Obama Administration are asking tough questions about the success of the counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy that David Petraeus and Stanley McChrystal introduced in Afghanistan, and that their successors have faithfully continued. The protests and deaths also raise once again the question, never convincingly answered, of just what America and her NATO allies expect to accomplish. America has poured immense resources into Afghan nation-building, and what has emerged is a highly corrupt state run by figures of exceptionally modest ability. Afghanistan today is probably stronger and more stable than it was before the Soviets invaded in 1979, but that’s claiming very little. The construction of a truly strong and stable state requires not only the rise of able Afghan leaders but also the success of COIN. Neither is in prospect.

COIN can succeed only if the bulk of the domestic populace accepts the forces implementing the strategy as their protectors and the Taliban as the enemy. Last week’s developments were not a worst-case scenario—Afghan civic and religious leaders largely called for calm and order, and the violence, while widely distributed, remained within manageable limits and appears now to be subsiding. On the other hand, it revealed a population highly suspicious of the motives of foreign military forces, and a sizeable number of Afghans who are prepared to reject NATO’s efforts as just another in a long series of foreign occupations driven by imperialistic aspirations.

Also troubling for COIN has been the number of NATO soldiers who have been shot by Afghan forces who are their presumed allies. At least fifty-eight have been killed in twenty-six events between mid-2007 and mid-2011, and according to one NATO study, the frequency of the incidents steadily accelerated during this period. Many of the deaths were due to poor communications or petty squabbles, but some reflected systematic issues with COIN, for instance in the shooting of livestock, in conduct disrespectful to women and elders, and in the use of night raids to pick up targets, a practice Afghans almost uniformly hate. It is hard to see how these strategies can produce anything that looks like success in Afghanistan.

Republican critics have flailed about in response to these developments, instinctively attacking President Obama over his apology for the acts of desecration against the Koran. These rebukes reflected the usual election-year triumph of politics over common sense—Obama had done no more than his generals bade him, driven by proper concern for the safety of U.S. and NATO forces and other personnel on the ground. These same Republican critics are also committed to keeping U.S. forces in Afghanistan in seeming perpetuity, without a clear deployment strategy or clear objectives. Their attitudes reflect the enemy the Taliban claims to be fighting: Christian crusaders, driven by a hatred of Islam, who want to occupy Afghanistan and treat it as a subjugated province.

There is no obvious fix for NATO’s operations. In the end, the effort will simply wind down, leaving a menacing security environment for the contractors who planners anticipate leaving in place in Afghanistan for some time. The result will be an environment that is welcoming to only one foreign party: Pakistan. For years, key figures in the Pakistani military have pursued a strategy of keeping their support networks in Afghanistan alive until Western forces quit the field. They expect to reassert themselves and perhaps convert Afghanistan once more into a satellite state. This depressing scenario seems increasingly likely to unfold. Yet perhaps the prospect can drive Afghans to reconcile and build a more responsible government in Kabul—one committed to a vision of their nation as truly independent.

Share
Single Page

More from Scott Horton:

Context, No Comment August 28, 2015, 12:16 pm

Beltway Secrecy

In five easy lessons

From the April 2015 issue

Company Men

Torture, treachery, and the CIA

Six Questions October 18, 2014, 8:00 pm

The APA Grapples with Its Torture Demons: Six Questions for Nathaniel Raymond

Nathaniel Raymond on CIA interrogation techniques.

Get access to 165 years of
Harper’s for only $45.99

United States Canada

CATEGORIES

THE CURRENT ISSUE

February 2016

Disunified Front

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

We Don’t Have Rights, But We Are Alive

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

Isn’t It Romantic?

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

The Trusted Traveler

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

The Trouble with Iowa

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

The Queen and I

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

view Table Content

FEATURED ON HARPERS.ORG

Article
New Movies·

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

The Force Awakens criticizes American imperialism while also celebrating the revolutionary spirit that founded this country. When the movie needs to bridge the two points of view, it shifts to aerial combat, a default setting that mirrors the war on terror all too well.”
Still © Lucasfilm
Article
Isn’t It Romantic?·

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

“He had paid for much of her schooling, something he cannot help but mention, since the aftermath of any failed relationship brings an ungenerous and impossible impulse to claw back one’s misspent resources.”
Illustration by Shonagh Rae
Article
The Trouble with Iowa·

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

“It seems to defy reason that this anachronistic farm state — a demographic outlier, with no major cities and just 3 million people, nine out of ten of them white — should play such an outsized role in American politics.”
Photograph (detail) © Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Article
Rule, Britannica·

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

“This is the strange magic of an arrangement of all the world’s knowledge in alphabetical order: any search for anything passes through things that have nothing in common with it but an initial letter.”
Artwork by Brian Dettmer. Courtesy the artist and P.P.O.W., New York City.
Article
The Queen and I·

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

“Buckingham Palace is a theater in need of renovation. There is something pathetic about a fiercely vacuumed throne room. The plants are tired. Plastic is nailed to walls and mirrors. The ballroom is set for a ghostly banquet. Everyone is whispering, for we are in a mad kind of church. A child weeps.”
Photograph (detail) © Martin Parr/Magnum Photos

Estimated percentage of New Hampshire’s bat population that died in 2010:

65

A horticulturalist in Florida announced a new low-carb potato.

In Peru, a 51-year-old activist became the first former sex worker to run for the national legislature. “I’m going to put order,” she said, “in that big brothel which is Congress.”

Subscribe to the Weekly Review newsletter. Don’t worry, we won’t sell your email address!

HARPER’S FINEST

Two Christmas Mornings of the Great War

By

Civilization masks us with a screen, from ourselves and from one another, with thin depth of unreality. We habitually live — do we not? — in a world self-created, half established, of false values arbitrarily upheld, largely inspired by misconception, misapprehension, wrong perspective, and defective proportion, misapplication.

Subscribe Today