When even some conservatives are calling for Sarah Palin to be replaced as John McCain’s running mate, you know she’s in serious trouble. But it’s unlikely that Palin will be forced to withdraw (barring a meltdown during the debate with Joe Biden or some other absolute disaster), as some analysts have been predicting, virtually from the time she was nominated. Nate Silver explains why:
- Destroys base morale.
- No obvious alternative.
- McCain has overplayed the “game-changer” card.
He notes one historic parallel as well: “George McGovern went from 19 points behind Richard Nixon in a Gallup poll taken in mid-July 1972–just after Thomas Eagleton had been nominated at the Democratic convention–to a -26 in early August after he had dumped Eagleton from the ticket.”