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Flames erupted across Tehran today as angry drivers set filling stations on fire. Could this be the start of one of the most important and most unanticipated news stories of the year?
A little more than a month ago, I was out in Orange County, California and had a pleasant dinner meeting with some of the nation’s leading Iran analysts. They were all angry about the White House’s highly provocative stance with respect to Iran. What, exactly, is the matter with it? “The Iranian populace is the most pro-American bloc in the region. They’re our prime asset. Any policy that starts with shattering our prime asset – that goodwill – is criminally stupid. A smart policy towards Iran would begin by understanding the inherent weaknesses of the mullahs and the Ahmadinejad government and would exploit them effectively. In the end, America doesn’t have to bring them down – the Iranian people will be delighted to do it. And it will be a hell of a lot cheaper and more predictable than launching an air war on Iran. And the long-term prospects are much better.”
I’m no Iran expert. But it made sense to me. They also said that the threats and cajoling coming from the White House made it difficult for Iranian opposition to move and built support from within around the government. But every American understands those dynamics. We lived through them in the months after 9/11.
But first some background: Everybody knows that Iran is a big oil producer. Iran possesses the world’s fourth-largest petroleum reserves, obviating the need for extra energy production. Right? Well, Reuters provides a story today that questions this perception: Iran has announced on state television that it will begin gasoline rationing, with a limit of 100 liters (26 gallons) of gasoline a month alloted for each automobile. Despite massive oil reserves, limited refining capacities continue to hamper Iran’s ability to supply its populace with heavily-subsidized gas. Add to this the key misery indicators: unemployment and inflation, both running at about 20%. No government enjoys broad popular support with these sorts of numbers. And this may explain why Iranian leaders like to talk about threats from abroad and the need to “circle the wagons” to support the government. Without the foreign threat, they have little to justify their continued governance.
The saber-rattling that the Bush administration has done lately, is Ahmadinejad’s good news. It may be the only thing keeping him afloat. Following the rationing announcement, several gas stations in Tehran were mobbed and burnt, and rioting took place at several locations throughout the city. Iranians are wondering what happened to Ahmadinejad’s campaign promises about spreading the benefits of Iran’s rich oil possessions – they seem to ring bit hollow on less than a gallon of gas a day.
All of this also makes the current hostage scandal a bit easier to understand. Four Americans have been seized and their dealings with dissident or opposition-oriented groups are used to stigmatize and silence likely sources of opposition to Ahmadinejad.
On the other hand, since the weekend, the Iranian press’s anti-American and anti-prisoner hysteria has suddenly gone silent. What’s up? A European diplomat is suggesting to us that Ahmadinejad may be prepared to release one of the four American hostages it currently holds. This is the sort of report that one can’t rely on, of course, but we can always hope there’s something to it.
Evan Magruder contributed to this post.
More from Scott Horton:
Conversation — August 5, 2016, 12:08 pm
Sidney Blumenthal on the origins of the Republican Party, the fallout from Clinton’s emails, and his new biography of Abraham Lincoln
Conversation — March 30, 2016, 3:44 pm
Joseph Hickman discusses his new book, The Burn Pits, which tells the story of thousands of U.S. soldiers who, after returning from Iraq and Afghanistan, have developed rare cancers and respiratory diseases.
Flor Arely Sánchez had been in bed with a fever and pains throughout her body for three days when a July thunderstorm broke over the mountainside. She got nervous when bolts of light flashed in the sky. Lightning strikes the San Julián region of western El Salvador several times a year, and her neighbors fear storms more than they fear the march of diseases — first dengue, then chikungunya, now Zika. Flor worried about a lot of things, since she was pregnant.
Late in the afternoon, when the pains had somewhat eased, Flor thought she might go to a dammed-up bit of the river near her house to bathe. She is thirty-five and has lived in the same place all her life, where wrinkled hills are planted with corn, beans, and fruit trees. She took a towel and soap and walked out into the rain. Halfway to the river, the pains returned and overcame her. The next thing Flor remembers, she was in a room she didn’t recognize, unable to move. As she soon discovered, she was in a hospital, her ankle cuffed to the bed, and she was being investigated for abortion.
Amount the town of Rolfe, Iowa, will pay anyone who builds a home there:
Ancient Egyptians worshiped some dwarves as gods.
In Italy, a judge ordered that a man who paid for sex with a 15-year-old girl must buy her 30 feminist-themed books, including The Diary of Anne Frank and the poems of Emily Dickinson.
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“Matt was happy enough to sustain himself on the detritus of a world he saw as careening toward self-destruction, and equally happy to scam a government he despised. 'I’m glad everyone’s so wasteful,' he told me. 'It supports my lifestyle.'”