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Karl Rove is the master electoral strategist of the Republican Party and has been since the 2000 election that brought the G.O.P. back to power. How’s he doing? Rove promised that he would lock in a durable Republican majority, comparable to the one that FDR built in 1932 (that finally disintegrated in 1952). But Rove’s strategies brought an electoral flash in the pan, followed by a disintegration of the Reagan-era G.O.P. coalition. Gallup is releasing a series of “State of the States” polls that look into the way Americans view the two major political parties. Take a look at the map on that page. The upshot: Karl Rove, who grew up in part in Salt Lake City, knows exactly how to appeal to Mormon America. He’s locked them into the Republican corner. And that’s about it. Otherwise, the country is turning into a deep blue sea, and most areas that used to be Republican party bastions (like the Southeast, Texas and Oklahoma) suddenly have become intensely competitive for the Democrats. What does this mean for the near term? Nate Silver offers this analysis:
for things like gubernatorial elections and elections to the Congress, the Democrats’ upside is very high, particularly if the party is smart enough to tolerate and accommodate a diversity of opinions within its umbrella. If party affiliation stays close to what it was in 2008, then giving the seats that are up for election, Democrats could very easily pick up another another 5-7 Senate seats in 2010, giving them not just a filibuster-proof majority but also a nearly veto-proof one. Party affiliation probably will not remain that way — there is typically a shift back to the non-incumbent party after the Presidency changes hands — but if it does we’ll have a very blue Senate.
I’m not sure I understand the full Democratic strategy for building out the already substantial majorities in Congress. But I’m sure that Democratic strategists are praying that Karl Rove and Rush Limbaugh remain as the guiding lights of the G.O.P.
More from Scott Horton:
Conversation — March 30, 2016, 3:44 pm
Joseph Hickman discusses his new book, The Burn Pits, which tells the story of thousands of U.S. soldiers who, after returning from Iraq and Afghanistan, have developed rare cancers and respiratory diseases.
In Havana, the past year has been marked by a parade of bold-faced names from the north — John Kerry reopening the United States Embassy; Andrew Cuomo bringing a delegation of American business leaders; celebrities ranging from Joe Torre, traveling on behalf of Major League Baseball to oversee an exhibition game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cuban national team, to Jimmy Buffett, said to be considering opening one of his Margaritaville restaurants there. All this culminated with a three-day trip in March by Barack Obama, the first American president to visit Cuba since Calvin Coolidge in 1928. But to those who know the city well, perhaps nothing said as much about the transformation of political relations between the United States and Cuba that began in December 2014 as a concert in the Tribuna Antiimperialista.
Estimated temperature of Hell, according to two Spanish physicists ‘ interpretation of the Bible:
The ecosystems around Chernobyl, Ukraine, are now healthier than they were before the nuclear disaster, though radiation levels are still too high for human habitation.
A TSA agent in Seattle was arrested for taking up-skirt photos of women in the airport, a Maryland police officer was arrested for taking up-skirt photos of an off-duty colleague, and the Georgia Court of Appeals ruled that taking up-skirt photos is legal in the state.
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“Matt was happy enough to sustain himself on the detritus of a world he saw as careening toward self-destruction, and equally happy to scam a government he despised. 'I’m glad everyone’s so wasteful,' he told me. 'It supports my lifestyle.'”