Washington Babylon — August 24, 2010, 11:19 am

Why Obama Will Win Reelection: Walter Mondale

With the Democrats looking to receive a solid (and well-deserved) drubbing in the mid-term elections, there’s much talk in the press about whether Barack Obama will be a one-term president. In a Sunday column, Dan Balz of the Washington Post wrote: “Throughout this long year, President Obama’s advisers have sometimes looked to Ronald Reagan for comparison and inspiration. If the Gipper could survive a deep recession, low approval ratings and an adverse midterm election in his first two years and win reelection handily two years later, then Obama could easily do the same, they reason.”

But, Balz went on to say, the situation appears far more perilous for Obama than it was, at a corresponding time, for Reagan:

Whatever the outcome in November [midterms], and whatever interpretation is placed on the results, the real question for Obama is what happens to the economy afterward. On that measure, comparisons with Reagan are discouraging for the current president. The economy rebounded significantly during Reagan’s third and fourth years in office. The unemployment rate declined, although not spectacularly…More important, however, was the rise in gross domestic product, which experts say is a far more reliable political indicator. The U.S. economy experienced a growth surge in 1983 and 1984 that helped set the stage for Reagan’s gauzy “Morning in America” ads and prepared the ground for his huge reelection victory…

If Democrats lose substantial numbers of seats in November, Obama’s advisers will probably take heart from Reagan’s example, according to Bartels. But the recession this president inherited is nothing like the economy of Reagan’s time, and the divisions in the country are, if anything, deeper and more virulent. Obama will need the economy to snap out of its slump far more robustly than current forecasts predict before he can feel confident about the road ahead.

If the economy is truly in the tank, Obama might well not win his reelection bid, but at this point I’d bet on him. Balz makes all sorts of analogies between Obama’s situation and Reagan’s but omits one critical fact, namely that Reagan won a second term in 1984 running against one of the worst candidates of modern times, Walter Mondale. Mondale had been Jimmy Carter’s vice president, and the duo had presided over a catastrophic recession that paved the way for Reagan’s reelection. Furthermore, Mondale was a totally boring candidate; by comparison, Al Gore looks as charismatic and feisty as a youthful Muhammad Ali.

And that’s the problem for Republicans — whoever wins the nomination is going to be as weak a candidate as Mondale (though not necessarily as bland). Sarah Palin may motivate the G.O.P. base, but she is not going to win a general election. Mitt Romney? Please. He’s almost as dull as Mondale, and a phony to boot. Obama would destroy him. Newt Gingrich? I’ll give you 20 to 1 odds.

OK, so maybe an exciting, lesser known Republican candidate will emerge between now and primary season. After all, at this point in 2006 Obama would have been given no chance of winning the presidential election of two years later. So who’s it going to be? That whirling dervish Tim Pawlenty?

Barring an economic meltdown of the scale that finished off John McCain’s campaign, Obama will be president until January of 2017. For better or for worse.

Share
Single Page

More from Ken Silverstein:

From the November 2013 issue

Dirty South

The foul legacy of Louisiana oil

Perspective October 23, 2013, 8:00 am

On Brining and Dining

How pro-oil Louisiana politicians have shaped American environmental policy

Postcard October 16, 2013, 8:00 am

The Most Cajun Place on Earth

A trip to one of the properties at issue in Louisiana’s oil-pollution lawsuits 

Get access to 165 years of
Harper’s for only $45.99

United States Canada

CATEGORIES

THE CURRENT ISSUE

June 2015

Loitering With Intent

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

A Polite Coup

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

Findings

What Went Wrong

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

Shooting Down Man the Hunter

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

view Table Content

FEATURED ON HARPERS.ORG

[Browsings]
“Here, a long finger of snow replaced by gray patches of dirt and rock; there, a grayish blob of ice the texture of corduroy, where once a vibrant white patch of snow lay.”
Photograph by the author
Article
Legends of the Lost·

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

“A bond with reality has gone, and sometimes you wonder whether that fosters our feeling that movies are a fleeting art.”
Photograph by Alexander Perrelli
Article
What Went Wrong·

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

“In the seventh year of his presidency, Barack Obama was presenting himself as a politician who followed the path of least resistance. This is a disturbing confession.”
Photograph by Pete Souza
Article
Surviving a Failed Pregnancy·

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

“If this woman — who spent her days studying gray screens for early signs of gestation — could not see my pregnancy, what were the chances that anyone else would?”
Illustration by Leigh Wells
Article
Interesting Facts·

= Subscribers only.
Sign in here.
Subscribe here.

“My husband is forty-six. I am forty-five. He does not think that, in my forties, after cancer, chemotherapy, and chemically induced menopause, I can get pregnant again, but sisters, I know my womb. It’s proven.”
Photograph by McNair Evans

Number of British women killed last fall by lightning conducted through their underwire bras:

2

British women wear heels for fifty-one years on average, from the ages of twelve to sixty-three.

Thousands of employees of McDonald’s protested outside the company’s headquarters near Chicago, demanding their wages be increased to $15 per hour. “I can’t afford any shoes,” said one employee in attendance, “and I want Versace heels.”

Subscribe to the Weekly Review newsletter. Don’t worry, we won’t sell your email address!

HARPER’S FINEST

Subways Are for Sleeping

By

“Shelby is waiting for something. He himself does not know what it is. When it comes he will either go back into the world from which he came, or sink out of sight in the morass of alcoholism or despair that has engulfed other vagrants.”

Subscribe Today